Friday, January 20, 2006

Bombing Iran

A few years back Israel flew to Iraq and bombed their nuclear program into dust. Today Iran, one of Bush's "axis of evil", is on the path to enriching uranium. They claim they are doing so for peaceful nuclear power generation. The United States doesn't believe them. So, will we attack Iran's nuclear program, or invade the entire country? Is there a proxy the US is talking to about doing the job for us? If so, who? Well, a well placed Octagon Spokesperson told me....that there may be any number of possibilities. He pointed out that pretty much no one believes that Iran with a nuclear weapon is a good idea, and the question of who takes the Iran program out has been a topic around the cribbage board of late. Most analysts seem to think that France is setting the stage to attack Iran. With their statement that they are ready to use nuclear weapons against "Terrorist states" which attack France. Well, if they think it OK to use nukes against Iran if al-Qa'ida attacks France from there, then why would they not be willing to preemptively remove Iran's nuclear capabilities? So goes one train of thought at the Octagon.

Another has either India or Pakistan going after Iran. Remember that a nuclear armed Iran does not give the globe a nuclear armed Arab nation because Iran is Persian, not Arab. Pakistan is already a majority Muslim state, the thinking goes, meaning that Pakistan could eliminate the Iranian program and not loose the influence that comes from owning the only nuke under Muslim control. This same Octagon official, who was only willing to speak if I promised to make him up, pointed out that India might join in the project in a first of it's kind sub-continental unity. This of course makes Chine nervous since keeping India and Pakistan at each other's throats is believed to be a vital piece of Beijing's planning. At least that's what the woman who runs the China Desk at the Octagon told me in a carefully monitored cell phone call.

She pointed out that China is experiencing exponential growth and has emerging oil needs and wants to secure them long term. It's believed by some in the Octagon that China might attack Iran's nuclear power program in an effort to keep Iran economically depressed and unable to do much more than drill and ship oil to China. It's thought by most everyone else in the Octagon that the woman who runs the China Desk needs a bit less Starbucks in her day.

Of course, those silly people over at the Green Party have suggested a different approach. They suggest that international negotiations and the support of freedom loving Iranians can be used to move Iran away from nuclear technology of any sort. They even go so far as to suggest that leaving Iraq would help make bringing Iran back from the brink possible.

My sources in the Octagon indicate that they don't think much of the Green Party's ideas.
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One of the things that disturbs me of late is the attitude of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian President. His election was a farce, carefully controlled by the powers-that-be to appear democratic while shutting out significant moderate and liberal voices within his country, and once in office he's begun a program of steering Iran hard to the right, with belligerance and warmongering that is inexcusable by any standard of the past 100 years. Hmmm...sound like anyone else we know?

The disturbing part is, I wonder how far that analogy stretches? After all, we know that Bush is essentially a figurehead for a group of proto-fascists who wrote the blueprint he is following years ago, and are using him to carry it out. I can't shake the idea that similar forces are behind Ahmadinejad. The Iranians I know are essentially normal folks politically who believe their country has been ideologically hijacked, just like the Americans I know.

I think the question facing us in the near future is, how do we, the people of our respective countries, regain control and force these violent extremists out of power, so that they may no longer harm anyone?
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